Thanksgiving update: I am not sure how Bloomberg calculates that odds thingy. I suspect they are using the wrong measure of where the futures market prices funds absent a rate hike. They should be using options prices or at least the logic of options prices anyway. But with the 2-year yield having moved up to 1.12, it seems pretty obvious that their odds indicator would now be at over 100%, which you don’t often see.
There is a 100% chance of a rate hike in December. I wonder are they given pause at all by the prospect of their indicator going to 101%?
They are clueless. If you trade this stuff you already know that, and it is not off by much, so who cares? Ok, fair question. The reason I care is that I strongly suspect that journamalists are equally clueless on issues where it actually matters. And now we have a government reflecting that. Heckuva job, guys.
As my old boss used to say, could you at least pretend to give a shit?