GDPThen

Business Insider is warning that the public’s reception of the GOP health care plan has not been “encouraging”. It would be so much more bullish if the sheep would just go more quietly to their slaughter or something.

They also have this, which is meant to be a warning:

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That GDPNow thingy seems really helpful.  Its collapse did a great job of predicting a surge of the stock market and Fed tightening. On the eve of that tightening, El-Erian told us things were so secure that the Fed could shift from being tactical to being strategic. I am not sure what that means, but it sounds very important and deep and contrary to the idea that the lower GDPNow had convinced people things must blow.

There are many problems with obsessing over what economists and journalists call “current” quarter GDP tracking. For many of them, if it has not yet been reported by the government it has not yet happened. They think their job is to anticipate data releases as opposed to — you know — the economy itself.

But just as a very start, that thing should be called GDPThen. Given that the reported or anticipated quarterly growth rate results from first taking an average of three-months of source data, the Q1 rate tells you how the GDP was growing on January 1, if you had to pick a single day.  That is where the growth calculation is centered.

I am trying to lean into silliness, not bearishness, here. I don’t have much view on the market. It has looked “fair” to me for a while. Ug. I do not get why the collapses of the constitution and suspension of the rule of law — plus talking about infrastructure — would be taken as so bullish.  Good chance it has been something else. Adam Posen says that if you give all the GDP to equity holders then they will like that. Maybe that is what is in the price now.

Gone skiing. The weather there is going to suck and I don’t want to go, but I need to preserve the friendship and bailing would not contribute. The burbs are a wasteland!