You got yer GDPThen metric telling you how the largely meaningless GDP was growing on roughly Jan. 1, if you had to pick a single day. People really love to “forecast” Jan. 1, even today. *
Or you can look at Goldman’s Current Activity Indicator which is actually current and is shooting the lights out. I am not sure I can show their indicator without permission and I don’t want to wreck my access. So you can either take my word for it or contact your friendly Goldman sales representative.
I don’t follow this stuff closely enough to know if the US economy is actually shooting the lights out. I am going to go with the economy continuing to grow at its “stall” speed for another three months, just as it has precisely for the past eight years.
The less said about the meaning of a “stall” speed that you stay at for eight years the better. Maybe one day we will reach “escape velocity”, a metaphor with roughly the same helpfulness as “stall speed.”
* One of the truly embarrassing things about being a business economist on Wall Street is that you have as colleagues people who give every impression of believing that if the government has not yet reported it then it has not yet happened. Half these people simultaneously think themselves quite heroic libertarians, which is quite a feat. Now imagine that you are no longer even talented enough to be among their ranks. Jesus.