Dollar effects probably around neutral

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Dollar index is actual to Apr.7 and then estimated through today based on move in Bloomberg index. Admittedly the overlap there is not perfect. Good enough for government work.

As Jon Stewart once said memorably of the plutonium coin, “now I’m no economist, but if we are going to just make shit up” … … then we should be freaking out over “dollar weakness.” *

I am sure my betters have figured out what the effects of the recent dollar move will be on trade. So far as I understand, the informed view there is that the trade deficit will be inclined to widen slightly while disinflationary effects are likely to abate — allowing core inflation eventually to rise.  Price effects come more quickly than real effects. Or so goes the story, which I believe.  Still waiting.

But applying advanced visual econometrics to this issue, as I am wont to do, it looks like the dollar made a meaningful leg higher and is now not moving around that much.  Not every little wiggle requires a macro discussion.

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* Hey look I found this gazillion dollar note in the sofa cushions from the Eisenhow Administration.  That really pissed off Krugman, who missed the humor and allowed me to assert my centrist credentials by disagreeing with him on something, in this case his inability to enjoy a joke. Otherwise, when in doubt, just go with Krugman.  Baiting MMT.