Make Beliefs actually defy Bayes, among other things

Update on April 28: See, I told you.

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If your prior is that there is no chance the Maple Leafs can win, as so nicely captured in this touching ballad, and then they win 4-3 against the Caps, how do you update?

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You cannot.  The Leafs are not only the source of chronic disappointment and dashed hopes (4-1 lead against Bruins), they suck so bad that they even overturn basic set theory.

The idea they might win is like that pretty girl from high school you had no shot with. She may have smiled at you, but it did not mean anything.